Government inflation data released Friday points to a 3.6 percent increase in Social Security benefits next year. The official COLA will be announced on Oct. 14, when September inflation figures are released, based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

If the projection holds, it would be the largest since 2023. This year's COLA was 2.8 percent. Experts note that CPI-W may not accurately measure seniors' unique costs, especially health care. Medicare Part B premiums are deducted from benefits; trustees project a $6.60 monthly rise to $209.50 in 2027, reducing net COLAs.

AARP's Bill Sweeney said older adults face higher costs on everything, with health care and prescription drugs rising faster than inflation. Juliette Cubanski of KFF noted that Part D premium increases will be larger than if subsidies had continued.

Other forecasts vary: the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects 3.4 percent, and the Senior Citizens League 3.5 percent. The COLA will apply starting in January for 75.7 million recipients, with notifications beginning in early December.