Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts China's oil imports will remain subdued in the fourth quarter, rising only moderately by about 600,000 barrels a day from the previous three months if crude prices stay elevated. Analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven noted the market views a sharp recovery in Chinese purchases as a trigger for materially higher oil prices, but this is unlikely.

The bank identifies a possible escalation of strikes on Mideast crude production and export infrastructure — not higher China imports — as the main upside risk to its crude price forecast. Brent oil is up around 36% since the start of the US-Iran war in late February due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, though a slowdown in Chinese imports has helped prevent steeper gains.

Goldman noted China's recent shift away from Russian and Iranian oil toward non-sanctioned supply likely supported global benchmarks. Fourth-quarter imports are still forecast to be 3 million barrels a day lower year-on-year. The bank estimates a 1 million-barrel-a-day change in Chinese net crude imports sustained over six months would move Brent's estimated fair value by about $4 a barrel.