In March 2025, NASA launched the Polarimeter to Unify the Corona and Heliosphere (PUNCH) mission, a constellation of four microsatellites that monitor the Sun 24/7. The spacecraft began taking images of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as soon as they entered orbit, providing continuous coverage of these explosive solar events.

Using one of those images taken on May 31, 2025, the PUNCH team fed the data into a computer model that analyzed the CME’s edges, speed, and shape. After only the first 12 hours of the eruption, the model predicted the solar storm would hit Earth eight hours later, with an accuracy of half an hour—a dramatic improvement over the typical five‑hour error margin of older forecasts.

Before PUNCH, instruments could dynamically track only about one‑fifth of a CME’s journey from the Sun to Earth. The new constellation captures the entire path and delivers images every four minutes, allowing scientists to refine their predictions in real time.

Accurate storm timing helps mitigate geomagnetic disturbances that can cause radio blackouts, power outages, and satellite disruptions. The PUNCH team has presented these findings as a proof of concept, and they expect even better forecasts as models and data improve.