According to a new investor note from GF Securities’ Jeff Pu and Henry Huang, Apple is projected to be the only major smartphone manufacturer to increase shipments in 2026, even as the global market is expected to shrink by more than 14%. Apple’s shipments are forecast to rise 4% year-over-year to 257 million units, up from 247 million in 2025, giving it a 24% global market share. This would keep Apple ahead of Samsung, which is expected to ship 241 million units, essentially flat year-over-year.
The report highlights Apple’s resilience amid rising memory costs that are pressuring competitors, with IDC and Counterpoint Research previously noting Apple’s stronger performance in 2024 and 2025. Despite this strength, challenges remain for Apple’s upcoming devices. The iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max have received a lukewarm reception due to competition from the iPhone Duo and criticism of their weight.
Production constraints are affecting both lines: the iPhone Duo’s EMS build plan has been reduced from 7 million to 6 million units in 2026 due to hinge issues, while the iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max build plan is lowered to 72 million units because of adjustable-aperture camera constraints. The iPhone Duo, now available for pre-order, shows delivery estimates stretching into late January in the U.S. and beyond. GF Securities maintains a “Hold” rating on Apple stock with a $369 price target.
Apple shares closed at $343.46, up 0.43% on the day, making it the only major tech stock to finish in the green amid a sector-wide sell-off.
Source: 9to5Mac · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing