Trump's military campaign against Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, could burden American taxpayers with up to $210 billion in economic losses, according to Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model. The estimate includes direct military costs and broader market disruptions. Smetters, a former Congressional Budget Office official, warns that prolonged conflict could push expenses beyond $210 billion, with energy and trade shocks driving uncertainty.

The $65 billion direct cost covers strikes on Iran's missile infrastructure and equipment replacement, while $115 billion accounts for indirect losses like energy price volatility. Smetters notes the $179 billion IEEPA tariff program—separate from military spending—may require refunds to businesses after a Supreme Court ruling. These figures exclude potential long-term geopolitical fallout, which could amplify economic instability.

The strikes began Feb. 28, targeting Iran's nuclear program after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death. Analysts stress that Middle East tensions historically disrupt global supply chains and financial markets. Smetters emphasizes upside risks: "The $210 billion ceiling reflects worst-case scenarios, including extended warfare."

Key entities: Penn Wharton Budget Model, Congressional Budget Office, IEEPA tariff program. Expert FAQ: *Will taxpayers ultimately bear the IEEPA tariff costs?* Answer: Refunds may shift the burden to corporations, but legislative changes could alter this outcome.