Conservative commentator Steve Hilton has surged to the front of California's crowded governor's race with 17% support in a new Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters. The former David Cameron strategist and Fox News contributor now leads over Democrat Eric Swalwell and Republican Chad Bianco, who are tied at 14% each. Hilton's campaign reported raising roughly $4.1 million in the second half of 2025, according to CalMatters.

Hilton's rise reflects a fractured Republican electorate, with the poll showing Republicans split nearly evenly between Hilton at 38% and Bianco at 37%. The race remains volatile, with 21% of voters undecided and support shifting since December. Tom Steyer's backing grew five points to 9%, while Katie Porter dropped one point to 10%.

California's unusual primary system means the top two vote-getters advance to the November general election regardless of party. With Gov. Gavin Newsom term-limited, the race features 11 major candidates from both parties. The poll also revealed voter discontent, with 53% considering leaving California due to cost of living concerns. Housing topped household budget worries at 28%, followed by utilities at 21% and groceries at 17%. The primary is set for June 2, with Democrats yet to coalesce around a single candidate.