Iran's decades-long investment in Iraqi proxy militias has yielded little support as Tehran faces its most serious military crisis in years. Despite billions spent cultivating fighters like A.J., a commander in a pro-Iranian paramilitary group, Tehran has received no mass mobilization from its Iraqi allies since launching operations against Israel and the U.S. last week.

Several factors explain the reluctance of Iran's proxies to join the fight. Israeli and American military campaigns have systematically eliminated key commanders, while Syria's collapse as a weapons transit route has left groups like A.J.'s isolated. Many militia leaders have transitioned into Iraqi politics and business, prioritizing personal wealth over ideological battles. As Gareth Stansfield, a Middle East politics professor at Exeter University, noted, these commanders now seek Western education for their children and access to international healthcare.

Iraqi security officials report that attacks claimed by pro-Iranian groups have caused minimal damage, with most missile and drone strikes originating directly from Iran rather than its proxies. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq label has been used for over two dozen online claims, but evidence suggests many are fabricated. With outdated weaponry and no new arms shipments since last year's conflict with Israel, Iran's once-formidable network of regional allies appears hollowed out just when Tehran needs them most.