The disarmament of Hamas remains a major obstacle to rebuilding Gaza and securing a lasting peace. Gulf states are withholding billions in rebuilding aid until Hamas disarms and enforceable security guarantees are in place. The Rafah crossing has reopened, yet stringent security protocols are limiting the flow of people and aid, highlighting the deep-seated tensions and lack of trust.

Hamas officials prioritize protecting civilians, not negotiating away weapons, and refuse to voluntarily disarm. Without a mechanism to enforce disarmament, and with no international force willing to intervene, the situation remains at an impasse. The absence of a monopoly on coercion means Hamas retains power, regardless of administrative structures.

Israel insists on the demilitarization of Hamas, focusing on offensive weapons like rockets and advanced arms. However, achieving this requires further military action or an external force, neither of which is currently viable. Hamas is attempting to maintain control while appearing to cooperate, further complicating the path to peace.

This situation has significant implications for regional stability and the flow of humanitarian aid. The lack of progress on disarmament threatens the entire "phase two" of reconstruction, governance, and long-term security. The conflicting messaging from Hamas and the absence of a clear path forward leave the region in a precarious position.