Archer Aviation's shares have surged 153% over three years as investors bet on the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market. The company projects full-scale commercial flights in Los Angeles by 2028, including operations for the Olympics, with revenue estimates reaching $967 million by year-end. Archer also acquired the profitable Hawthorne Airport near Los Angeles, though this revenue stream isn't tied to its core aircraft business.

Despite ambitious targets, analysts remain skeptical about Archer's path to profitability. The company reported a $130 million GAAP net loss in Q3 2025, up 13% year-over-year, with operating expenses rising 43% to nearly $175 million. With about $2 billion in liquidity, Archer continues heavy investment in aircraft development, though it produced just six aircraft in mid-2025 with only three in final stages. A recent $650 million stock sale diluted shareholder value.

Archer faces significant hurdles before 2028. The company expects minimal eVTOL revenue in 2025 as the market remains nascent and demand projections uncertain. While Archer aims to produce 650 aircraft annually, current output falls far short of this goal. Analysts warn that current revenue estimates appear overly optimistic given the unproven nature of the business model. With Archer's share price already up 155% over three years and the company burning cash while expanding operations, investors should carefully weigh the risks before committing capital to this speculative aerospace venture.