Trafigura, the Singapore‑based commodities trader, warned that global energy markets hit an inflection point as Middle East tensions tighten supply lines. The firm cited shrinking inventories and stalled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as driving forces. Prices have held steady so far, but the buffer from high stockpiles is fading.

Saad Rahim, Trafigura’s chief economist, said the muted oil response to production cuts stems from the year‑long buffer of high inventories. Demand hits in Asia, Australia and Africa have eased western supply, keeping prices contained. Yet inventories now plunge, and no peace deal is signed, tightening the squeeze.

If the conflict persists alongside shipping restrictions, Rahim warned, physical markets will face historic challenges. The rapid drawdown could trigger a price rise as supply tightens further. Investors must monitor inventory trends and geopolitical developments, as a sudden shift could reshape the oil benchmark and spill into broader commodity pricing.

Trafigura’s assessment signals that markets may soon move from a buffer‑driven plateau to a tighter, more volatile phase. The shift underscores the need for firms to adjust hedging strategies and for policymakers to seek a diplomatic resolution before supply curtails hit a critical threshold.