The International Energy Agency now expects global oil demand to decline by 1.1 million barrels per day this year, up from its earlier 420,000‑barrel forecast, citing high prices and supply disruptions. The Gulf shock will push demand lower until flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalize.

A fresh U.S.–Iran interim deal, the most sizable advance since the war began, signals a potential lift in shipping, yet the agency warns full recovery of the Strait’s traffic will take months. By 2027 supply should rebound to 8 million barrels per day as trade routes stabilize.

If the Strait’s throughput clears as projected, oil markets could see a 2 million‑barrel daily growth next year, easing price pressure and improving the economic outlook. Investors and energy firms watch the corridor closely, as any delay could keep prices elevated and squeeze margins.