Investors who timed their trades around President Trump's policy shifts regarding Iran have outperformed the market significantly. Since Trump took office, nine of the S&P 500's ten largest single-session gains occurred during periods of relief over tariffs or Iran-related developments. Owning stocks on just those nine days would have generated a 52% return versus 12% for buy-and-hold investors.

Wednesday's cease-fire announcement likely secured a top-six finish for this pattern. However, this tailwind appears to be weakening as the initial euphoria fades.