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Treasury Yields Rise on Middle East Tensions

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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U.S. Treasury yields climbed as President Trump reinstated a blockade on Iranian shipments in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent oil to $84.95 a barrel and reigniting inflation fears. The 10-year yield rose 1.4 basis points to 4.623%, after touching an eight-week high of 4.636%, per Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index slipped 0.2% to 101.075 ahead of U.S. CPI data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony.

Eurozone yields followed suit, with the German 10-year Bund hitting 3.114%, an eight-week high. Deutsche Bank strategists remain bearish on duration, forecasting the 10-year Treasury at 4.80% by year-end. J.P. Morgan advised unwinding 10- to 30-year flattener positions before the CPI release and Warsh's testimony, citing hawkish Fed commentary from Governor Christopher Waller.

In Asia, JGB yields fell after a strong 20-year auction posted a bid-to-cover of 4.52. The 10-year JGB yield dropped 5.5 bps to 2.730%. Analysts note markets expect a Middle East resolution rather than all-out conflict, though term premia pressures persist.