Oil prices are on the rise again, stoking inflationary pressures that the Fed is trying to keep in check as it meets to decide on interest rates today. Traders expect rates to stay on hold, putting the probability of a hike at just under 30%, according to CME Group—but Kevin Warsh's tight-lipped posture has made the meeting harder to read.

Brent crude futures jumped more than 3% after Iran launched a surprise attack on U.S. forces in Jordan, just as negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz were picking up speed. It's another reminder of how efforts to resolve the conflict have repeatedly stalled, posing the risk of prolonged disruptions to energy markets.

U.S. stock futures are muted. In South Korea, memory-chip maker SK Hynix reported a jump in earnings, but came up short of high expectations, sending the stock tumbling nearly 10%. Recent anxieties around the AI trade and so-called hyperscalers' spending will face another test this afternoon, when Meta and Microsoft report earnings.