Oil prices rose in early Asian trade as analysts weigh the durability of a U.S.–Iran interim peace deal. Renewed fighting in Southern Lebanon triggered Iran’s statement that the agreement has collapsed and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Market participants now assess how a stalled corridor could tighten supply.

Front‑month WTI crude futures climbed 2.1 % to $78.18 a barrel, reflecting worries that even a full reopening would prompt a slow, uneven rebound. Analysts note that logistics, energy infrastructure and dwindling inventories could keep the market tight through the year, limiting any rapid supply surge.

The tightening scenario pressures refiners and exporters alike, as higher prices squeeze profit margins in a market already strained by geopolitical friction. Investors will monitor whether the corridor eventually clears, but current data suggest a prolonged supply gap that could keep oil prices elevated for months.

This shift also impacts global energy trade flows, as the Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 % of world crude exports. A protracted closure could force shippers to reroute through the Bosporus or the Suez Canal, raising transit costs and reshaping shipping routes. The market will react to any concrete signs that the corridor reopens or remains blocked.