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Oil Prices Balance Amid Supply Shifts

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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Oil markets show signs of rebalancing despite Middle East tensions, with prices contained as Chinese buying pulls back and U.S. exports surge. HSBC analysts note rapid inventory draws have eased immediate availability concerns. WTI crude-oil futures rose 0.8% to $99.02 a barrel while Brent added 0.6% to $105.67. However, U.S. inventories may reach the five-year range bottom by late June or July.

Shell will benefit from stronger commodity prices through 2028, partially offsetting softer downstream margins and elevated cash capital expenditure of $20.9 billion. Baader increased Shell's 2026 EPS expectation by 28% to $4.28 and its 2027 view by 22% to $4.51. The firm expects adjusted net profit around $20 billion through 2027, raising the target price to 4,269 pence as Brent prices move lower to around $75 by 2028.

Infratil's CDC data centers will draw attention when reporting FY26 results, but Forsyth Barr emphasizes the importance of other portfolio assets like Longroad Energy. Analysts seek updates on 1.5 gigawatts of projects Longroad will build next year. Forsyth Barr has an outperform call on Infratil with a NZ$17.50/share price target, expecting One NZ to report flat FY26 Ebitda amid competitive telecoms market.