Two weeks after the Iran‑U.S. clash began, oil CEOs warned Washington that closing the Strait of Hormuz could send crude above $100. The narrow channel moves roughly 20% of global daily oil flow, so a shutdown threatens a sharp supply pinch. Yet Brent settled at $84.88 per barrel on Friday, buoyed by tentative peace talks and investors watch the outcome closely.

Analysts say the market’s restraint reflects two tailwinds. First, Chinese refiners have trimmed imports as domestic demand eases, removing a major demand source. Second, diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran appear to be narrowing, lowering the probability of a prolonged conflict. Both factors have kept inventories from depleting as quickly as feared, while OPEC+ remains watchful of the balance in the near term.

Even if hostilities cease, dwindling global stockpiles edge toward a critical low, meaning any supply shock could reignite price spikes. Traders warn that the current buffer is thin, and a renewed disruption would push prices back above the $100 mark, tightening margins for refiners and raising costs for consumers worldwide as energy‑intensive industries feel the pinch today.