The Magnificent Seven tech giants have slashed stock buybacks sharply this year. Excluding Nvidia, the group's repurchases last quarter fell to just under $17 billion — down 55% from the prior quarter and 71% from a year earlier. For investors who relied on buybacks as an earnings tailwind, the retreat is unmistakable.

Nvidia spent roughly $40 billion on buybacks during its last fiscal year, up 19% from the year before. Yet Q4 repurchases plunged to under $4 billion, a two-year low, even though the chipmaker had free cash flow to spare. Investors will watch closely when Nvidia reports Wednesday to see if the trend reverses.

Markets are digesting muted futures, $110-per-barrel Brent crude, and multiyear-high Treasury yields. With most S&P 500 earnings in the books, Nvidia's buyback stance and guidance will likely shape how tech valuations hold up through the inflation debate.