IPO fever is surging as companies lean on inflated market math to spark demand. SpaceX’s S‑1 touts an “actionable total addressable market” of $28.5 trillion, with $23 trillion attributed to enterprise AI. The filing suggests capturing just 5% would lift the firm into the trillion‑dollar tier, a figure that dwarfs the U.S. economy’s $31 trillion annual output. Analysts note competition will curb that upside today.

The hype intensified after AI chip maker Cerebras debuted its May IPO, sending shares nearly double on opening day. CEO Andrew Feldman projected a $5 trillion revenue stream by assuming 47 million software engineers each consume $100,000 of AI tokens annually. The model ignores infrastructure costs. Such bottom‑up calculations fuel optimism but rest on speculative usage patterns in the sector.

Investors should treat these soaring TAMs with caution; history shows that inflated forecasts often precede sharp price corrections. While the AI surge promises new revenue channels, valuation spikes based on unchecked assumptions risk eroding returns once market realities set in. The current frenzy underscores the need for disciplined due diligence rather than headline‑driven betting for capital allocators overall market.