The Strait of Hormuz is gradually reopening after Iran closed the vital oil shipping route when conflict erupted with the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28. The waterway normally carries roughly 20% of globally traded oil, so its shutdown created an immediate supply crunch that markets are now racing to unwind.

A new U.S.-Iran agreement this week cleared the way for partial reopening, shifting attention to how quickly producers can clear bottlenecks and load crude for export. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, identified two critical constraints: whether tankers can transit freely and if producers can load enough crude to meet demand.

Early signs suggest recovery remains slow. Ship-tracking data shows six verified transits on June 17, with daily crossings averaging around 10 vessels—far below the pre-war pace of more than 100 ships per day. So far, three Saudi tankers and one French-flagged LNG carrier have crossed successfully.

Shipowners need confidence to reroute cargoes, insurers must reduce premiums, and producers face pressure to load quickly and avoid new bottlenecks. The market's response will signal whether Gulf oil markets can normalize after months of disruption.