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Debt, Inflation, and Populism Rattle Global Bond Markets

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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Bond markets are finally reacting to years of mounting pressures. Yields have surged dramatically in recent days, catching many investors off guard. The real surprise isn't the spike itself, but that it took so long to materialize given the underlying conditions.

U.S. government borrowing has run unchecked for years, while inflation has persistently exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target since 2022. Corporate America has added fuel to the fire, issuing massive debt to fund the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom. This borrowing binge has created a perfect storm for fixed-income investors.

The combination of excessive debt, persistent price pressures, and rising populism has fundamentally altered the interest rate environment since 2020. What seemed like an orderly period of low rates was actually masking deeper structural issues that are now coming to a head.

Investors face a reckoning as the era of easy money ends abruptly. The bond market's violent repricing reflects reality catching up with years of monetary accommodation and fiscal excess.