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Cool Inflation Data Propels Stocks to Fresh Records

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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Wall Street now expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next month after two straight days of soft inflation data lifted the S&P 500 index to an all-time high. On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that wholesale prices were unchanged in July, defying predictions of a rise.

“Shifting expectations for Fed policy may contribute to periods of equity volatility, but we expect the global stock rally to continue,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of equities at the UBS Chief Investment Office. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to close at a record high for the 27th time this year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.1%.

Traders are now pricing in a two-thirds chance the Fed will hold benchmark rates steady at its meeting next month, a dramatic shift from a month ago when they saw a 75% chance of a hike. Another CPI report is due before the Fed’s next rate decision in September.