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Banking Sector Trends: RBC Spending Slows While European Banks Eye Recovery

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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Royal Bank of Canada's consumer spending data shows a cooling trend, with core retail sales growth declining to 0.7% in May from April's 1.2% on a three-month average basis. Despite easing momentum, spending remained positive as essentials rose 1.1% and discretionary purchases increased 1%. Higher gasoline prices continued straining household budgets, pushing consumers to tap savings or borrow more to maintain spending levels.

Home market data reveals persistent challenges across North America. US contract cancellations held steady at 13.6% in May, with Atlanta, Fort Worth, and Jacksonville experiencing roughly 18% failure rates on home-sale agreements. Canadian home prices marked their sixth consecutive monthly decline, dropping 1% in May and bringing the annual decline to 4.3%. Transaction volumes remain weak despite recent sales rebounds.

European banks could see valuations reach 11-12 times earnings by year-end if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale stand to benefit most from potential risk-on rallies, while AI adoption may compress margins but drive broader growth. Singapore's export outlook brightened as Maybank raised its 2026 NODX growth forecast to 15% from 4.5%, citing strong electronics shipments and easing supply disruptions.

These mixed signals reflect divergent regional trends: Canadian consumers show resilience amid cooling credit growth, US housing demand remains constrained by affordability, European banks await geopolitical resolution, and Singapore benefits from the AI-driven global capex surge.