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Asian FX Splits as Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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Asian currencies drifted in opposite directions on Tuesday as traders absorbed mounting expectations of additional Federal Reserve hikes. UOB Global Economics & Markets Research noted that June 5 produced the sharpest single‑day selloff in months across U.S. risk assets after a blowout May jobs report lifted the odds of a rate increase. The week ahead features a packed data calendar.

The dollar held near 160.32 yen, slipped 0.8% to 1,547.00 won, and rose 0.9% to 4.0630 ringgit. LSEG data showed the yen unchanged, while the Malaysian currency strengthened against the greenback. Market participants await U.S. CPI and PPI releases, which could sharpen the already‑repriced outlook for Fed policy and test regional currency resilience.

Investors see the mixed moves as a barometer of how quickly the Fed may act. A stronger ringgit hints at capital inflows to emerging markets, whereas a weaker won flags pressure from a firming dollar. With inflation data due, any surprise could trigger rapid repositioning across the Asian FX desk, forcing traders to recalibrate hedges and pricing models.

Currency managers will watch the CPI print closely; a reading above expectations could vindicate the Fed’s tightening bias, prompting further yen support and additional pressure on the won.