Trump and Xi met in Washington last week, but the talks ended without a clear path to easing the two‑year trade war. Economists Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown, co‑authors of an upcoming book on trade disputes, wrote that both leaders would need a “personality transplant” to bridge the gap. Their essay says low trust and entrenched subsidies make a grand deal unlikely overall.

Both sides wield considerable leverage, yet neither appears ready to overhaul its economic model. A pragmatic alternative could involve targeted purchase agreements—China releasing rare‑earths while the U.S. supplies high‑end chips. Such swaps would not erase the 30% plunge in Chinese exports to America last year, but they might curb a spiralling tariff tit‑for‑tat. Clearer licensing rules could also cut compliance costs.

U.S. trade chief Jamieson Greer floated a Board of Trade to trim tariffs on “nonsensitive” goods and solicit public input on product lists. By limiting any agreement to a short‑term framework and setting an annual review, policymakers could manage mutual dependence without cementing risky supply‑chain concentrations. Ultimately, any U.S.–China pact will remain a narrowly scoped, time‑bound instrument.