U.S. surveillance flights near Cuba have intensified, with P-8 and RC-135 aircraft tracked near Havana and Santiago de Cuba. The 25+ flights since February, documented by FlightRadar24, signal heightened tensions amid Trump’s threats to oust Cuba’s government. Energy embargoes worsened Cuba’s crisis, prompting experts to debate whether reconnaissance missions foreshadow military action.

The flights, conducted by Navy and Air Force assets, aim to gather intelligence on troop movements, as Cuban officials warn of sovereignty threats. Unlike the covert 2023 Venezuela operation, these missions are publicly visible, experts argue, to intimidate Cuban leaders and allies like Russia and China. A retired Navy commander noted the U.S. rarely makes surveillance operations this overt, suggesting a deliberate messaging strategy.

Trump’s administration has publicly vowed to "take over" Cuba, escalating rhetoric after halting oil shipments. While officials deny invasion plans, analysts warn the flights reflect updated contingency strategies. Retired intelligence officer Renee Novakoff stressed the unprecedented scale of activity, calling it a critical escalation. Cuban Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío condemned the moves as part of a "coldly calculated communications strategy."

The geopolitical stakes remain high, with U.S. analysts divided on whether the flights precede military action. Brian Latell, a former CIA analyst, noted their purpose: intelligence collection and psychological pressure. As negotiations stall, the skies over Cuba have become a flashpoint in escalating U.S.-Cuban hostilities.