Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine failed to deliver quick victory, and neither has Trump's February attack on Iran. Nicole Grajewski at Sciences Po calls it hubris on both sides. Asymmetric tactics keep both conflicts alive: Ukraine strikes Russian oil infrastructure and Black Sea shipping with sea drones, while Iran hits Gulf military bases and energy facilities with attack drones, threatening the Strait of Hormuz chokehold.

$106 billion in EU loans unlocked for Ukraine last month shows how defense spending is reshaping European budgets. Ukraine is trading drone technology and training assistance for Middle East diplomatic backing and advanced air-defense systems. Those Gulf security agreements, announced in April with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, would have been unthinkable several years ago.

The EU's €90 billion loan signals a new era for defense exports flowing eastward. Europe's ability to sustain Ukraine support hinges on whether Iran war disruptions to energy supplies drag down its economies further.