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UK Leadership Race Spooks Bond Markets as Burnham Campaign Stokes Investor Fears

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Andy Burnham's bid for prime minister has rattled British bond markets, with investors dumping gilts after recalling his past criticism of government dependence on debt financing. The mayor of Greater Manchester once argued that policymakers shouldn't be 'in hock to' bond markets, a stance that resurfaced as he launched his leadership campaign.

British government bonds sold off sharply, pushing 10-year yields above 5 percent to levels unseen since the 2008 financial crisis. The sell-off echoes memories of former Prime Minister Liz Truss's brief tenure in 2022, when markets recoiled at unfunded tax cuts. Britain carries £2.9 trillion in debt, roughly 93 percent of GDP, making it vulnerable to investor sentiment shifts.

The market turmoil reflects broader changes in gilt ownership, with hedge funds replacing traditional long-term holders like pension funds. These more speculative investors trade frequently, amplifying volatility during political uncertainty. While yields offer better returns now, Britain faces disproportionate punishment from investors due to fiscal policy concerns and growth disadvantages.

Global factors compound the pressure, as energy price shocks from Middle East conflicts feed inflation worldwide. Higher borrowing costs across advanced economies mean central banks aren't cushioning debt burdens as they did during the pandemic, leaving markets to price in greater risk for countries with questionable fiscal discipline.