As tensions escalate over the Strait of Hormuz, a Brookings Institution fellow warns President Trump against repeating Winston Churchill's fatal miscalculation during World War I. The narrow waterway carries one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly one-fifth of liquefied natural gas trade, making it a critical choke point that Iran has effectively closed.

Turkish history offers a stark warning about military attempts to force passage through strategic waterways. The 1915-16 Gallipoli campaign, conceived by Churchill as first lord of the Admiralty, ended in catastrophe when Allied forces tried to push through the Dardanelles. The disastrous operation killed over 130,000 men and cost Churchill his position, while inadvertently blocking Russia's access to the Mediterranean and contributing to revolutionary unrest that toppled the Romanov dynasty.

The author proposes a Montreux Convention-inspired approach as an alternative to military confrontation. This 1936 agreement between Turkey and major powers created a framework that balanced freedom of passage with Turkish sovereignty over the straits. A similar arrangement for Hormuz would require specific rules against attacks on merchant shipping, mining restrictions, and mechanisms for monitoring compliance during both peace and wartime.