President Trump is pushing a phased approach to end the U.S.-Iran war that mirrors his playbook in Gaza: agree to a cease-fire first, tackle the hardest issues later. The immediate focus is ending Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade, imposed after U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February sent energy prices soaring. More contentious matters, including Iran's nuclear program and missile stockpiles, get pushed off for future talks.

The strategy has already run into trouble in Gaza. A Phase 1 deal last October secured hostage releases and a partial Israeli withdrawal. But Phase 2 stalled. Hamas has not laid down its weapons, Israel continues near-daily bombardment, and Palestinians remain in rat-infested tent camps amid rubble. Nickolay Mladenov, the former U.N. envoy now leading Gaza talks, admitted the war "does not yet feel fully over" for Palestinians.

Market implications are immediate. The Hormuz blockade disrupted oil and gas shipments, pressuring global energy prices and supply chains. Analysts say Iran's leaders have grown emboldened by the conflict, making compromise harder. Michael Koplow of the Israel Policy Forum warns Iran will be "far tougher" because the issues are more complicated. The phased approach risks treating a ceasefire as a victory while leaving the core conflict unresolved.