Since taking office in 2025, Donald Trump's net approval rating has collapsed by more than 30 points, creating opportunities for Democrats to regain the House and Senate, potentially in states like Texas and Kansas. Political consultant Sarah Longwell, founder of The Bulwark and host of The Focus Group Podcast, has conducted hundreds of focus groups with thousands of voters since the 2016 election, providing qualitative evidence of voter evolution in the Trump era. Longwell explains that voters primarily connect Trump to two specific decisions: unilateral tariffs and the war with Iran.
Both policies have raised prices at a time when voters elected Trump to lower costs, and they oppose further military conflicts. Voters consistently report that their lives are not improving, focusing on specific price increases like beef rising by $2. Longwell notes a universal sentiment across the political spectrum that things are going badly, driven by tangible economic outcomes rather than policy minutiae.
She argues that voters live through experiences, see the outcomes, and then decide how they feel, making the tangible impact of tariffs and economic policies the primary driver of current dissatisfaction and potential electoral realignment.
Source: New York Times Top Stories · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing