A New York Times/Siena poll conducted May 11-15 finds that Donald Trump retains overwhelming backing within the Republican coalition, with 75% of GOP voters approving his job performance. Yet 37% of potential Republican supporters want the party's next presidential nominee to break from his playbook, including a majority of Republican-leaning independents who could decide general elections.

War-related economic pain is undercutting that loyalty. Gas prices and inflation have climbed sharply since the February military campaign against Iran, and 55% of Republican backers now hold a negative view of the economy. Only 43% say the Iran war has been worth the costs, while 40% disapprove of how Trump has handled the cost of living.

The foreign policy fractures extend to Israel, where 37% of Republicans now oppose economic and military aid — up from 28% in September. On trade, 47% of young Republicans want the party to abandon Trump-era tariffs. These rifts won't move the needle within the party's core, but they shape the 2028 field and signal real vulnerabilities heading into a general election.