A June agreement between President Trump and Iran has unraveled after Iranian forces attacked the GFS Galaxy container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a cycle of U.S. strikes and Iranian missile barrages against American bases across the Gulf. Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf declared the memorandum of understanding void, asserting Tehran's exclusive right to arrange safe passage through the waterway that carries roughly 20% of global oil supply.

The U.S. military launched a third round of strikes on Iranian targets Saturday after the Revolutionary Guard hit the Cyprus-flagged vessel east of Oman, killing one Iranian officer at the port of Jask and leaving an Indian crew member missing. Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles and drones targeting Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and the port of Duqm in Oman, claiming destruction of U.S. command centers and refueling infrastructure.

Regional mediators are scrambling. Oman summoned Iran's ambassador over drone strikes on its territory, breaking its traditional neutrality. Qatar suspended all maritime activity indefinitely. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar urged restraint in a call with his Iranian counterpart, having helped broker the June pact. The U.S. Central Command insists traffic is flowing, but insurers are reassessing war-risk premiums for Gulf transits.

The episode exposes the fragility of informal security arrangements in the world's most critical energy chokepoint. With no enforcement mechanism, the June deal relied on mutual restraint that evaporated after a single incident. Oil markets now price in a persistent risk premium, and shipping lines face higher costs for rerouting or enhanced security — a direct tax on global trade that will persist until a verifiable framework replaces ad hoc understandings.