Oil prices surged after Trump declared the Iran nuclear agreement "over" following attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway handles roughly 20% of global petroleum flows, and any sustained disruption would force immediate rerouting of Saudi Arabia and UAE exports through limited pipeline alternatives.

The tanker strikes triggered a new retaliation cycle that threatens to throttle energy shipments from the Persian Gulf. Trump's statement signals potential reimposition of full sanctions on Iranian crude exports, which had already dropped to near-zero under prior pressure campaigns. Energy traders are now pricing in both physical supply risk and the prospect of tighter enforcement against buyers, particularly Asian buyers who account for the bulk of remaining Iranian purchases.

Brent crude rose sharply in early trading as markets assessed whether Iran will respond by restricting passage through the strait or targeting regional infrastructure. The U.S. Navy has deployed additional assets to the area, but convoy operations would add days to transit times and increase freight costs.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the single most vulnerable node in global energy infrastructure. Any closure exceeding two weeks would deplete OECD strategic reserves and force refiners into spot-market bidding wars. The administration's next move — sanctions waivers, naval escorts, or diplomatic off-ramps — will determine whether this spike becomes a sustained risk premium.