After the Supreme Court trimmed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, analysts expected a drop in Black congressional seats across the South. A new study using computer‑generated, race‑neutral maps challenges that view, showing that nonpartisan redistricting can produce roughly the same number of districts where non‑white voters dictate the outcome. Law firms and data‑analytics companies see the findings as a blueprint for upcoming redistricting contracts.

Researchers ran 5,000 simulations per state, forcing districts to be compact and to respect county lines while ignoring race. In Tennessee, more than 99 % of the generated plans created a plurality‑Black district anchored in Memphis, even though the algorithm had no demographic input. Alabama’s Jefferson County—42 % Black—emerged as a likely Democratic‑leaning seat. The consistency of these results has attracted interest from political‑consulting firms seeking algorithmic tools.

Simulations also reveal gaps: rural districts such as Louisiana’s Sixth and diverse metro suburbs often fail to generate minority‑opportunity seats without explicit race considerations. Yet overall, color‑blind maps yield as many opportunity districts across the South as existed in 2024. Investors watch these patterns shaping campaign‑finance flows and lobbying demand.