In the opening hours of the Feb. 28 assault on Tehran, an Israeli airstrike hit the Narmak home of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, wounding him but killing the Revolutionary Guard guards who were both his protectors and his captors. U.S. officials say the hit was intended as a jailbreak, part of a broader scheme to install the hard‑line figure as Iran’s next leader.

President Trump publicly urged “someone from within” Iran to take power, while Israeli planners drafted Operation Epic Fury to dismantle missile sites and, simultaneously, back a pragmatic replacement. Analysts note the gamble hinged on Ahmadinejad’s willingness to work with Washington despite his past calls to “wipe Israel off the map.” The plan unraveled after his injury, leaving his whereabouts unknown.

The episode reveals how the war’s initial objectives—neutralising Iran’s nuclear and missile capacity—were intertwined with a risky regime‑change thrust. Investors watch for any shift in Tehran’s political calculus that could affect sanctions, oil output and regional security contracts. With Ahmadinejad disappeared, the United States and Israel now lack a clear proxy for post‑conflict governance as diplomatic talks stall in the region.