A senior Iranian intelligence officer reflects on the regime’s resilience amid relentless U.S. and Israeli strikes, noting that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains functional despite heavy losses. The crackdown on January protests has kept the regime intact, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosts oil revenue.

The officer points out that Iran’s conventional state apparatus—running airports, paying salaries, and managing infrastructure—differs sharply from guerrilla fighters, undermining the belief that Iran has an upper hand. Every foreign bomb reduces the regime’s governing capacity and exposes its vulnerability to a resentful population.

Recent targeted strikes on Arab neighbors, intended to pressure Saudi Arabia and the UAE, risk reversing diplomatic gains made before the war. The strategy could also trigger a renewed Israel‑Saudi rapprochement, potentially isolating Iran further.

With key intelligence leaders dead and the economy in deeper crisis, Iran’s future hinges on whether its economic leverage and military tactics can offset growing international isolation. The nation now faces a stark choice: continue costly brinkmanship or seek a more sustainable diplomatic path.