Iran believes it has gained the upper hand in its conflict with the United States, according to Brookings Institution expert Suzanne Maloney. The Iranian regime has survived thousands of US and Israeli strikes, including attacks on senior leadership, while maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of global oil exports pass daily.

By seizing control of this critical waterway, Iran has forced insurers and shipping companies to avoid the Gulf, dramatically reducing the daily flow of 130-140 ships to just a handful. This blockade has sent oil and fertilizer prices soaring and threatens catastrophic damage to the global economy if the strait remains closed. Iran views this as leverage to potentially charge countries for passage through the waterway.

Despite President Trump's claims that the war will end in two to three weeks and that US military objectives are nearly achieved, Iran sees itself as winning by forcing the US to abandon its commitment to keeping the strait open. The regime believes it can afford to wait, having learned it can exert significant power over the world economy through this chokepoint. This strategic advantage has made Iran reluctant to negotiate directly with Washington, viewing previous talks as mere preludes to military action.