Despite being militarily outmatched, Iran has gained the upper hand in its conflict with the US and Israel through an asymmetric strategy. The regime employed what scholars call triangular coercion—attacking vulnerable Gulf states that have leverage over its more powerful adversaries. By striking energy infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, Iran created deterrence that limited US and Israeli operations.

The decisive moment came March 18 when Israel bombed Iran's South Pars gas field, prompting Iranian retaliation against Qatari and Saudi energy facilities. This retaliation introduced deterrence that President Trump acknowledged within hours, effectively capping escalation. Oil prices spiked as markets recognized the strategic leverage Iran wielded through controlling the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows.

The strategy has exposed vulnerabilities in US power projection, demonstrating that military superiority alone cannot guarantee swift victory. Iran's ability to hold shipping hostage has created economic pressure that extends beyond the immediate conflict zone. With over a thousand vessels still trapped in the strait, the blockade continues to disrupt global energy markets.

Experts suggest Iran will likely maintain partial control over the waterway as a long-term asset, providing both revenue and geopolitical leverage. This outcome signals a fundamental shift in how regional powers can challenge superpowers through asymmetric economic warfare rather than direct military confrontation.