Iran's military campaign against the US and Israel has transformed the Strait of Hormuz into a strategic chokepoint, granting Tehran unprecedented leverage over global oil flows. Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG passes through this narrow waterway. While insurers withdrew war-risk coverage, causing a 90% traffic drop, Iran hasn't physically closed the strait.

Instead, its credible threat of intermittent attacks has crippled reliability, spiking insurance rates and freight costs. This forces Asian economies like Japan and South Korea, heavily reliant on Gulf energy, to confront a new reality where energy security trumps market transactions. The US faces an asymmetric challenge: protecting every shipment is unsustainable, while accepting Iranian dominance reshapes the global order.

Iran, Russia, and China gain leverage, potentially forming a de facto energy cartel threatening US economic stability. The US must choose between a costly military reassertion or accepting a fundamental shift in global power dynamics.