U.S. intelligence disclosed that Iran continues to operate the bulk of its missile force despite former President Trump's claims of degradation. Analysts say the country holds functional control of 30 of its 33 missile sites along the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a region that funnels a third of global oil shipments.

The assessment, drawn from classified sources in Washington and Brussels, estimates Iran retains roughly 70 percent of its pre‑war missile inventory. That figure translates into several hundred launchers capable of striking targets across the Middle East, raising concerns for regional allies and prompting insurers to reassess premiums on shipping lanes that traverse the Gulf.

Energy traders have already factored the intelligence into pricing models, nudging Brent crude up a few cents per barrel as market participants price in heightened geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, defense contractors eye the data as a potential catalyst for new sales to Gulf states seeking to bolster their own missile defenses against a more capable Iranian arsenal.

U.S. policymakers face pressure to translate the intelligence into concrete countermeasures, but any escalation could disrupt the already fragile flow of commerce through the strait. Investors watching the situation will likely monitor sanctions activity and any shift in Tehran’s procurement patterns, as those variables will shape the risk premium attached to regional assets.