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Iran Conflict Slows U.S. Housing Market Recovery

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Buyers nationwide hesitate as the Iran war disrupts the housing rebound. Economists cite rising mortgage rates from inflation and uncertainty about 80-day median listing periods, the longest in five years. Brokers report stalled transactions, with mid-market homes struggling amid asset-building anxieties.

The Federal Reserve’s rate hold worsened buyer hesitation, according to Brad Case at Homes.com. Sellers-turned-buyers delay purchases, fearing further volatility. Entry-level and ultra-high-end markets remain active, but mid-luxury ($2M–$5M) properties face the steepest decline. Ricardo Rodriguez of Coldwell Banker notes, "These buyers are asset-sensitive and risk-averse."

Miami defies trends, with sales doubling year-over-year despite oil-driven rate hikes. Craig Studnicky of ISG World attributes this to local buyers ignoring geopolitical impacts. Pending sales rose 1.5%, signaling pent-up demand, though experts warn, "The right house will sell—just slower."

Long-term implications loom. Analysts link the conflict to sustained oil price spikes, which could prolong borrowing costs. With the National Association of Realtors cutting its growth forecast to 4% from 14%, the war’s shadow threatens to reshape 2026’s recovery trajectory.