Iowa’s June 2 primaries pit two open‑seat races against retiring Republicans—Sen. Joni Ernst and Gov. Kim Reynolds. Democrats view both contests as top pickup chances after farm‑state backlash to Trump’s tariffs. The Senate primary features state Sen. Zach Wahls versus Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian with Trump‑friendly credentials. VoteVets has poured $10 million into Turek’s campaign, making it the most funded Democratic contest in the state.

Republican governor’s race remains volatile despite Donald Trump’s late endorsement of Randy Feenstra, the early establishment favorite backed by Ernst and former Gov. Terry Branstad. Former Rep. Steve King backs farmer Zach Lahn, who has recently out‑raised Feenstra and is running TV ads. If no GOP candidate clears a 35 percent threshold, a June convention could decide the nomination, threatening the party’s unity.

In Montana, a smokejumper named Sam Forstag, championed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez, competes in a crowded Democratic primary for the open House seat left by retiring Rep. Ryan Zinke. Republicans rally behind talk‑radio host Aaron Flint, a Trump endorsement. Analysts note the district could flip as Trump’s approval slips, making the outcome a bellwether for progressive inroads in the West.