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Hungary's Roma Voters Could Decide Orban's Re-Election

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Prime Minister Viktor Orban's policies targeting Roma voters have made them a critical swing group in Hungary's closely contested parliamentary elections. Over 16 years, his government has used public jobs and education reforms to secure Roma support, but systemic changes have also deepened social divides. Roma make up 8% of Hungary's 9.6 million population, yet their votes could tip the balance in a race where Orban's Fidesz party trails. Critics argue education reforms—including lowering the mandatory school age to 16 and centralizing control—have disproportionately harmed Roma students, limiting their access to quality education and perpetuating cycles of poverty. A 2023 study found Roma students’ school attendance dropped 21 percentage points between 2011 and 2016, compared to a 5.9 percentage point drop among non-Roma peers. The Roma community remains divided, with some supporting Orban’s job programs while others condemn his rhetoric and policies. Opposition party Tisza claims Orban’s policies “deepened social exclusion,” while Fidesz allies dismiss criticisms as political theater. Education overhaul backlash has intensified, with reports of Roma families fleeing to church-run schools and activists calling for systemic change. The 2025 EU study notes Roma graduation rates remain far behind Hungary’s average, yet Orban’s government insists progress is being made. With polls showing a tight race, Roma voters hold unprecedented influence, forcing both parties to address long-ignored inequalities. Orban’s focus on migration and EU support for Ukraine may resonate with some Roma, but his education policies remain a contentious issue. The outcome hinges on whether Roma voters prioritize economic benefits or systemic reform, shaping Hungary’s political future.