Not all progressives are equal: Candidates of the activist left typically don't perform as well as other Democrats.

Rashida Tlaib and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez represent the activist left, but their electoral success varies significantly from more moderate Democratic candidates.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed's gubernatorial campaign highlighted this divide. Despite strong progressive support, he struggled against more centrist opponents who appealed to broader coalitions.

The data shows that while activist left candidates energize base voters, they often face challenges winning over swing voters and independents in general elections, potentially costing Democrats key races.

This pattern suggests that the Democratic Party's internal tensions between progressive and moderate wings could impact electoral outcomes, particularly in swing states like Michigan where narrow margins determine victory.