Arizona, California and Nevada will be forced to make deep cuts to their Colorado River water usage under a new two-year operating plan from the Department of the Interior. The plan, covering cuts through 2028, comes after years of failed negotiations between the seven basin states and as Lake Mead and Lake Powell have fallen to record lows. Arizona faces the steepest reduction at 760,000 acre-feet, roughly a 27% cut, while California must reduce usage by 440,000 acre-feet and Nevada by 50,000 acre-feet. The upper basin states — Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico — face no mandatory cuts under the federal plan.

The cuts translate to about a 27% reduction for Arizona, 10% for California and 16% for Nevada, according to Sarah Porter of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University. Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources, called the outcome "pretty good" despite initial concerns. Arizona's senators Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly expressed support for the guidelines.

The Colorado River, a lifeline for 40 million people and over 5 million acres of farmland, has shrunk dramatically due to climate change-driven drought and heavy demand. Lake Mead is now lower than ever since its creation, and Lake Powell reached a record low in August. The 1922 Colorado River Compact, which divides water between upper and lower basins, is no longer workable under current conditions.

Experts worry the plan may spark litigation as tensions rise between states. Celene Hawkins of the Nature Conservancy noted the system is at risk of crashing. The lower basin states have proposed cuts but want upper basin states to share the burden, though federal authorities cannot compel reductions from the upper basin. The plan serves as an interim measure while states continue negotiations, with reassessments every two years.