Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia faces a pivotal parliamentary election on Sunday, seeking re-election as his nation grapples with war, peace, and shifting geopolitical alliances. The vote comes amid heightened tensions with Russia and a fragile peace process with Azerbaijan that Donald Trump helped broker.

Pashinyan's Civil Contract party campaigns against three pro-Russia factions, with Moscow imposing trade restrictions and fueling an aggressive disinformation campaign. Russia's support for Armenian opponents follows Pashinyan's outreach to Washington, including hosting Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The prime minister promoted his TRIPP peace initiative during rallies, arguing voters must choose between Western integration or Russian dependence.

Leading challenger Samvel Karapetyan, an Armenian billionaire with Russian and Cypriot citizenship, campaigns from house arrest on charges of plotting government overthrow. His Strong Armenia party could pivot the nation back toward Moscow, mirroring Georgia's recent shift. Polling shows Pashinyan ahead but vulnerable without coalition partners.

The election tests Armenia's post-Soviet identity after losing Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Pashinyan's vision includes normalized relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, potentially unlocking new trade routes and reducing Moscow's grip. A defeat could end his peace efforts and trigger political prosecution. Armenia's choice will reshape regional energy, transport, and security dynamics for years.