U.S. inflation has accelerated this year due to geopolitical tensions and AI investment booms, stoking price pressures. Economists expect October Consumer Price Index to rise 0.3 percent after September's 0.6 percent jump, with core inflation forecast at 0.2 percent. However, the upcoming report will lack the crucial year-over-year comparison.
This gap stems from last year's government shutdown, which halted price data collection from Oct. 1 through Nov. 12, preventing the Bureau of Labor Statistics from releasing an October index. Consequently, the agency cannot calculate a standard 12-month change. The Federal Reserve closely monitors this data ahead of its Dec. 8-9 meeting, where policymakers are expected to raise rates.
With inflation persistently above the 2 percent target, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, officials signal continued gradual tightening. Recent decisions included a September quarter-point hike and holding rates at 3.75 to 4 percent. The labor market remains solid, but accelerating price pressures could necessitate faster hikes.
To estimate the missing year-over-year figure, economists and The New York Times will average September and November price levels. This method may slightly overstate inflation, as last November's figures were artificially depressed by the data gaps. The uncertainty surrounding the 12-month metric is unlikely to sway Fed officials, who prioritize shorter-run changes for inflation guidance.
Source: New York Times Business · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing