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UK gilt yields jump as Starmer's premiership hangs in balance

New York Times Business •
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Britain’s bond market reacted sharply on Tuesday as internal dissent within the governing Labour Party cast doubt on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s tenure. The pound slipped 0.5% to $1.35, while gilt prices fell, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield 5.12% higher from 5% the night before. Investors interpreted the move as a hedge against potential policy shifts should Starmer be replaced.

Market analysts linked the rally to lingering uncertainty over Labour’s post‑election direction. Berenberg economist Andrew Wishart warned that a successor with a more left‑leaning agenda could raise the risk premium on UK assets, prompting higher borrowing costs. Simultaneously, the war in the Middle East has lifted global energy prices, tightening Britain’s inflation outlook and nudging the Bank of England toward further rate hikes.

Capital Economics cautioned that ousting Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves would likely lift British gilts yields further, without improving medium‑term growth prospects given existing fiscal constraints. Oxford Economics’ Andrew Goodwin added that with inflation stubborn and political risk persisting, the 5%‑plus yield environment is unlikely to recede soon. Investors therefore face a tighter financing climate across mortgages, corporates and sovereign debt.