Despite the Iran war and global uncertainty, U.S. stock markets have delivered surprisingly strong returns over the past year. The S&P 500 declined less than 1 percent year-to-date through early April 2026, while the average domestic stock fund gained 16.8 percent over the 12 months through March, according to Morningstar data.

International stock funds outperformed domestic ones, posting a 26 percent gain over 12 months compared to 16.8 percent for U.S. funds. Energy funds benefited most from soaring oil prices, with average gains of 44.6 percent over the past year. Even with the recent market turbulence following the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran in February, most investors remained insulated through diversified mutual funds and ETFs.

This resilience supports the argument that staying invested through geopolitical crises often pays off. However, analysts warn that the current calm may not persist if fighting resumes or oil supplies remain constrained. The combination of Trump's tariffs and the oil shock could still derail economic growth, making bonds and safe interest-bearing accounts attractive options for investors who may need cash within five years.